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Blog about finance

A blog exploring finance, TCO, and theory.

Two side-by-side line charts of 30-year portfolio trajectories. The frequentist panel fans out around a rising medoid toward $10M; the Bayesian panel has a wider downside fan, with several paths depleting the portfolio before year 30.

Killing the Frankenstein Estimate: Bayesian vs. Frequentist Retirement Planning

Retirement

Bayes

Frequentist

Why feeding static historical averages into retirement models sets clients up for failure, and how tracking parameter uncertainty changes the game.

Rihards Kolkovskis

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